Arizona Fall League Scouting Notebook
The Arizona Fall League wrapped up its brief season earlier this month, showcasing intriguing prospects across all six of its member teams. The AFL is especially unique in that all 30 MLB clubs are represented on these six rosters, giving myself a chance to look at up-and-coming players I wouldn’t normally have a chance to see in person - given that half of them spend spring training across the country in Florida.
After taking in three games , including two games at last month’s tripleheader at Goodyear Stadium, here are some of the notes I gathered on several players who could make an impact in the big leagues as early as next year.
Peoria @ Salt River - 10/11 - Box Score
Blake Walston (ARI) got the start for Salt River, with the lefty offering up a compact, low-effort delivery out of a 3/4 arm slot. Walston struggled to find his command and release point and doesn’t seem to have a true outpitch to put hitters away when he gets into plus counts. He gets downhill quickly out of the stretch and is athletic and capable of handling fielding responsibilities. Walston’s fastball sat primarily 89-91 in addition to featuring a slider at 78-80. At the end of the day, Walston is a pitchability lefty that will struggle to advance through the Arizona system unless he cleans up the command and finds better shape on the secondaries.
Walston’s starting counterpart, RHP Ike Buxton (MIA) features a compact, low 3/4 delivery and sat 90-92 on the fastball with some ASR. Buxton hides the ball well during his delivery that allows the stuff to play up and miss bats even if he’s not blowing opposing hitters away with velocity or movement. In addition to the fastball, Buxton also featured a changeup at 82-84 and slider at 80-82 with some depth. I liked what I saw from the former 15th-rounder and Buxton’s strong start to his pro career could mean that his ceiling is a reliable backend, league average starter or solid middle reliever.
J.C. Flowers (PIT) entered in relief and I underlined “plays with an edge” in my notes. Flowers is a plus athlete with a whippy arm and low 3/4 release that’s tough for hitters to pick up. The fastball jumps out of his hand, sitting 92-94 with some sinking action to induce groundballs. Flowers also flashed good arm speed on a changeup that sat 82-84, as well as a slider in the mid-80’s. He works too much in the middle of the plate at present but I like the arm out of the bullpen. At 25 years old, Flowers’ clocking is ticking to make an impact at the big league level.
The arm lighting up the radar gun more than any other this contest was righty Miguel Mendez (SD), comfortably sitting 93-95 with the fastball and topping out at 97. The fastball has some ride at the top of the zone but isn’t really a swing and miss pitch at this stage. Mendez works up in the zone too much and could learn to harness his changeup and slider that features some late, horizontal bite in order to avoid hard contact. The tools flash here but there’s still work to be done moving forward.
When I say that right-hander Austin Vernon (TB) is huge, I’m talking “Game of Thrones” huge. Listed at 6’8”, 265 pounds, Vernon is an imposing presence on the mound and features a ton of violent, high-effort movements in his delivery. Vernon’s long arm action leads to big extension down the mound on his front side - but at that point it’s anyone’s guess as to where the baseball is headed. The fastball sits 92-94 and there is some good shape to the secondaries and swing-and-miss ability but the former 10th-rounder from NC Central has a lot to clean up from a command standpoint before he can be counted on in any big league bullpen role.
Speaking of Rays prospects, shortstop Carson Williams (TB) was arguably the most exciting prospect in the lineup for Peoria, particularly in the field. Williams is an easy, fluid athlete at shortstop with double-plus arm strength. He never panics when the ball comes his way and had several scouts in my area on the edge of their seat when he had the chance to make a play. Williams has an athletic frame but seems to have more room to fill out and tap into more in-game power. He possesses strong hands but there’s a lot going on with his pre-timing mechanisms that lead to a fair amount of swing and miss. At the end of the day, Williams is one of the best prospects in a never-barren Tampa system - and if I had to make a comp, I’d say that I see shades of current Astros infielder Alex Bregman.
Williams’ former Tampa system teammate, Kyle Manzardo (CLE), may be the closest to the majors of any of the AFL’s top prospects and it’s hard not to fall in love with the bat. Manzardo has lightning quick hands and does an excellent job of staying inside the ball, which helped him launch an absolute moonshot of a home run to RF in this contest. Despite a smaller frame, the former Washington State star generates tons of leverage and loft that should lend itself to plenty of doubles at the major league level. Manzardo’s value is somewhat hamstrung by the fact that he plays a clunky first base and isn’t really a fit defensively anywhere else on the field. Still, sources in the Guardians’ organization rave about this kid and there’s plenty of evidence to suggest he can be an above-average regular at first base in the not-so-distant future.
Surprise @ Mesa - 10/14 - Box Score
Lefty Ricky Tiedemann (TOR), back after missing the majority of the 2023 season, was the bonafide star of the first game of the weekend tripleheader.
Tiedemann is a top-of-the-rotation starter in the making, attacking hitters from a crossfire, low 3/4 slot which one scout in attendance comped to Josh Hader. The ball explodes out of his hand, getting outstanding ride on the fastball that sat comfortably 93-95 and touched 97 on a number of occasions. Tiedemann is confident and composed on the mound, clearly having an excellent feel for his own mechanics and body control. He also does an excellent job at understanding pitch sequencing and has the ability to make slight mechanical adjustments on the fly. The slider, which sat mostly 79-81, is a future 70 pitch for me and is the southpaw’s go-to outpitch against righties, generating lots of ugly swings. There’s also plenty of confidence in his changeup at 80-82 that flashes good fade. As long as he can stay healthy and the Blue Jays manage his workload, Tiedemann should become one of the game’s best young starting pitchers in relatively short order.
Peoria @ Scottsdale - 10/14 - Box Score
The second game of the tripleheader was my first look at Cleveland’s 2022 first-rounder, outfielder Chase DeLauter. The James Madison product is a premium athlete with a simple setup and timing mechanics at the plate. DeLauter fires his hands quickly and does an excellent job of generating backspin that should lend itself to above average power in the future. It’s easy to see why sources in the Guardians organization are extremely high on him and fellow Peoria teammate, Kyle Manzardo.
Ryan Bliss (SEA) was one of the key pieces in last season’s trade deadline return for Paul Sewald and had a strong AFL campaign en route to winning the league’s Defensive Player of the Year honors. Bliss generates excellent bat speed despite his slight frame and figures to be in the mix for the starting second base job at some point next season for the Mariners. Another surging Seattle prospect, Tyler Locklear, continues to impress with good pitch recognition and strong hands to go along with his above average in-game power. Locklear’s value is tempered by his defensive value at first base but there’s plenty to like in his profile.
On the mound, I can’t go without mentioning Scottsdale starter Davis Daniel (LAA), who turned in an excellent performance - striking out ten over six innings of work. Davis sat 92-94 with the fastball and featured a compact, repeatable delivery and good extension on his front side. He also mixed in a slider and curveball and good pickoff move.
Peoria’s Cole Paplham (SD) showcased an intriguing two-pitch mix out of the bullpen during his outing, up to 97 with the fastball and sitting 84-86 with a slider that flashed good depth and spin rates in the 2700-2800 range. Paplham was an independent league signing by the Padres in 2022 and while he’s already 23, there’s enough here to feel like he’s got a chance to stick in a bullpen somewhere down the line.
The best way to describe the stuff of Andre Granillo (STL) is “loud.” The broad-shouldered righty ran a heavy fastball up to 97 out of a high 3/4 arm slot, also featuring a slider that sat between 82-84 with more of a cutter shape. He’ll have to refine the command quite a bit moving forward, as he’s susceptible to hard contact off the fastball when he gets behind in counts - including some 105+ exit velocities from several Peoria hitters. Granillo has averaged 11.50+ K/9 in each of his three professional seasons to this point, so the swing and miss is obviously there, but command and further refinement to the offspeed offerings will dictate his future value.
